Microstrategy, the biggest Bitcoin company holder, holding almost 2.5% From the overall offer of Bitcoin, saw its MSTR stock market plunging 40% compared to its peak, which made concerns while Bitcoin is struggling to maintain more than $ 90,000. Meanwhile, the action is currently 60% above its fair value, and this difference has started to shrink because investors may not realize that they are too paid. Does this mean that the microstrategy Bitcoin purchasing strategy is the return of fires?
Institutional investors collect?
According to the analysis of 10x Research, Microstrategy exchanged $ 40 billion in volume in November 2024, when Bitcoin exceeded $ 95,000. However, the company stresses that institutional investors have probably took advantage of this opportunity to unload their positions to retail merchants at swollen prices. From now on, these retail buyers are faced with heavy losses despite Bitcoin to maintain its price levels.
Meanwhile, recent Bitcoin price movements indicate that the market is entering a consolidation phase. Finally, the cryptocurrency jumped 89% between September and December 2024, mainly due to the expectations of the rate reductions in the federal reserve.
However, 10x Research stresses that the decrease in the rates in December has been considered bellicist, indicating that the Fed may not further reduce rates of soon. This maintained bitcoin in a consolidation phase, increasing the risk of another correction if the Fed maintains its prudent position.
Bitcoin ETF outputs add more pressure
Another major factor weighing on Bitcoin is the significant outputs of Bitcoin ETF. 10x Research reports that February 2025 promises to be the worst month for Bitcoin ETF outings since its launch, with $ 1.3 billion leaving the market.
An important part of these FNB purchases was motivated by hedge funds engaged in arbitration strategies. As the financing rates drop, these professions relax, adding a more in -depth sales pressure to the Bitcoin and the wider market.
Disclosure of microstrategy actions (MSTR)
Despite the drop in the price of bitcoin, Microstrategy has continued to accumulate Bitcoin, adding $ 6 billion since December. Meanwhile, 10x Research stresses that microstrategy actions lose its premium compared to its asset value (NAV).
At its peak, Microstrategy’s Premium of Nav reached 3.4x, but it has since fallen to 1.6x, suggesting a fair value of $ 156 per share.
While Bitcoin is still on similar levels in November 2024 when Microstrategy reached a summit of $ 453, but the stock has Since falling at $ 287reflecting its navigation compression.
Bitcoin must hold these levels of support
Bitcoin has broken below its ascending widening corner formation, increasing fears of a new decline. According to 10x Research, if prices do not recover the corner, Bitcoin could test the average cost of microstrategy of $ 66,300.
Technical analysis also suggests that microstrategy actions also violate 11 weeks, adding to the bearish feeling.
With a lack of bullish catalysts and the sustained sales pressure of FNB holders and hedge funds, the Bitcoin struggle at $ 90,000 could lead to a new drop in microstrategy with it.