The price of Bitcoin has dropped more than 8.8% since Friday, when Bebit underwent the greatest cryptography hacking in history. The flagship digital asset reached a peak of $ 99,493 at the end of last week, only to withdraw at around $ 91,500 at the time of the press, marking a drop of -5.5% since Monday. This slowdown breaks not only Bitcoin’s attempt to maintain more than $ 95,000, but also placed it about to lose its 97 -day critical negotiation range between $ 91,000 and $ 102,000. In particular, the Bitcoin price has broken below the descending trend chain that has been at stake since January 20.
What is the next step for Bitcoin?
Ari Paul, co-founder and investment director of Blocktower Capital, offered a large-scale view of the Bitcoin trajectory and the wider macroeconomic environment. In a job On X, Paul addressed the potential for weakness of the stock market and its training effect on digital assets: “My market takes: actions for 4 to 15 months of pain (I will become 9 months) linked to a government defeating politicians (price and mass layoffs mainly). Then, this is a political question-the administrator Trump “he capitulates” and does he become seriously inflationary? In the vast majority of similar cases in history, the answer was yes, but just a low confidence for me currently. »»
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By focusing on crypto, Paul stressed that if cryptocurrencies can still display short-term correlations with actions, they are intrinsically on different cyclical rhythms: “What does this mean for crypto?” I continue to think that crypto and actions are on Different rhythm cyclesBut that does not deny the short -term correlation. The Alts probably follow the shares at least at least (but they are already so down, even against 2021, they can well before the shares.) ”
Speaking on Bitcoin, Paul predicts that the main cryptocurrency “will act as a mixture of gold and S&P 500”, adding, “if gold remains strong, it suggests that Bitcoin would outdo the losing actions, but perhaps not be much. A trace at ~ $ 73,000 at $ 77,000 seems plausible, I would probably add there. »»
Despite the short -term volatility, Paul remains optimistic: “I remain confident crypto Bull market not finishedBut it seems more and more different from previous cycles, perhaps much slower and longer. My basic case is that the crypto will lead the general turn of macro inflation, so perhaps the crypto-cut dates back 6 months and that the actions appear in 9. The data dates are only indications of my assumptions. I do not place any weight on the exact deadlines. »»
The founder of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, also took warn an imminent push down. He underlined the mechanics of the negotiated funds in exchange for Bitcoin (ETF) and the arbitration of the term market as potential engines of increased sales pressure.
“Bitcoin Goblin Town Incoming: Many Ibit holders are hedge funds that have made a long CME future in the short ETF to obtain a higher return to what they finance, in the American short term. If this base decreases as BTC falls, these funds will sell Ibit and redeem the term contracts on CME. These funds are in profit, and the base is close to the UST yields, they will relax during the hours and will make their profits. $ 70,000 I see you Mofo, ”he wrote.
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In particular, the 10x Research research company published An analysis of Monday indicating that although the ETF Bitcoin – led by the Ibit product of Blackrock – have collected $ 38.6 billion in net entries since their launch of January 2024, a large part of this capital may not represent Simple Paris on the rise in BTC prices, aligning with the Hayes Declaration.
“Although FNB Bitcoin has attracted $ 38.6 billion in net entries since their January 2024 launch, our analysis suggests that only $ 17.5 billion (44%) represent real long -term purchases. The majority – 56% – is probably linked to arbitration strategies, where short bitcoin long positions compensate for entries, “noted the company.
Before the drop in current prices, the Tony market technician “The Bull” Severino, warned Imminent volatility to Bitcoin, noting that Bollinger’s daily bands struck extreme waterproofing – a model often followed by a significant price swing: “A decision will soon be made in Bitcoin, while Bollinger daily bands will reach the third reading The simplest since 2018. At the end of 2018, respect for records resulted in a 50% drop in just over a month. In the middle of 2023, record waterproofing resulted in a 200% rise in just over 200 days. In what direction does volatility be released? »»
With Bitcoin who spent just above $ 91,000 and the market is still in shock from Historical Hack by BybitThe market is at a pivotal time. Graphic signals, macroeconomic uncertainties and the progress of complex negotiation strategies collectively attract a darkening perspective with a possible extension of this collapse of the range from $ 73,000 to $ 77,000 in the coming months.
Meanwhile, it does not have to announce the start of the bear market. Chris Burniske, partner of Paceholder VC, commented Via X: “In the middle of 2021: BTC decreased by 56%, ETH lowered 61%, soil lowered 67%, many others 70-80% +. You can find all the reasons why this cycle is different, but the reset of the environment that we live is not unprecedented. Those who call for a full bear are wrong. »»
At the time of the press, the BTC was negotiated at $ 90,537.
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