He Bitcoin price It is strong at the most important moment of this week. Indeed, this afternoon at 2:30 p.m. is the time of the PNF (Employment Growth) report in the United States. In addition, we will know the unemployment rate.
This is very important because greater weakness in the American labor market gives Donald Trump additional ammunition to put pressure on the central bank to reduce interest rates. If you get it, it would be extremely optimistic for Bitcoin.
US labor market
Several experts are concerned about the situation of the American labor market. For example, market analyst Matt Weller shows as follows: “In a variation in the well -known metaphor for frog in boiling water, the labor market looks more like my daughter in the bathtub: unconscious of all damage while water, before cooling slowly … until suddenly trembles and requires tourism, just as the federal reserve could soon do the interest rates to save work.”
I am particularly proud of this sentence from my next #NFP Preview report:
In a touch of the analogy of the “frog in boiling water”, the job market looks more like my daughter in the bathtub: unconsciously unconscious while the water once chopped is gradually cooled … until it suddenly shivers and … pic.twitter.com/ahzkz2Oeha
– Matt Weller CFA, CMT (@mwelerfx) July 2, 2025
Yesterday, we may have had a small sample of what awaits us today. Indeed, ADP employment growth has shown a negative result of -33,000 jobs. While a positive result of 98,000 jobs was expected. This marks the first negative impression since March 2023.
Huge ADP Miss … The trend is clear.
* Private Payrolls ADP:
-33k vs 98K exp.First negative impression since March 2023. pic.twitter.com/osgzox6yh7
– Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) July 2, 2025
In the important Goldman Sachs, they expect a result of + 85,000 jobs for the growth (the most important) of PFN employment tomorrow. However, this figure is lower than the consensus of +110,000. However, in Goldman, they indicate that they do not care about the negative score of ADP employment growth, because it has shown little correlation with the PFF report in recent years.
Forecast for PFN Thursday, expecting it to go upwards. pic.twitter.com/xlu9kdidl0
– Point Deer macro (@DeerPointMacro) July 1, 2025
In Deer Point Macro, they expect today’s NFP report to be better than expected. Opinions are therefore quite divided on the crucial report this afternoon.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Normally, we want to see a strong American economy for Bitcoin. In principle, this remains the case. However, if a lower employment report forces the American central bank to reduce interest rates, this time it could be an exception.
In this case, it would be really optimistic of Bitcoin If the employment report disappoints. The market also seems to be positioning itself in this direction.
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