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Bitcoin continues to impose a momentum up because he finally recovered a critical award bar. Since the latest data, BTC has briefly exchanged above $ 109,000; However, he has since retraced, now negotiating at $ 108,959, marking an increase of 3.5% in the last 24 hours.
This puts the assets at less than 1% of its summit of $ 109,958 recorded in January. The rally is based on weeks of gradual prices, suggesting Persistent bullish feeling Among investors. However, while action Seems strong on the surface, the market metrics suggest a more nuanced image below.
New data Since the cryptocurrency analyst, Maartunn highlights a change in commercial behavior, in particular on Binance, the largest exchange of cryptocurrency in the world in volume.
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Bitcoin term activity increases while the Spot-the-Futures ratio reaches a 1.5-year summit
In the recent Maartunn Quicktake position entitled “Ratio Spot to Futures (Binance) reaches 1.5 years”, the analyst stressed that the ratio between the spot volume and the term contracts reached 4.9, its highest level in 18 months.
On May 12, Binance recorded $ 30.17 billion in trading volume compared to $ 115.56 billion in term negotiation. This difference in 4.9x indicates that the speculative interest, often driven by the lever effect, currently exceeds the direct purchase pressure observed on the cash markets.
The Spot to Futures ratio gives an overview of the balance between active purchases of assets and speculation based on derivatives. A higher ratio means that trading is more strongly concentrated on the term marketsWhere traders are betting on price movements without having the underlying asset.
This model often reflects short -term feeling and positioning rather than a long -term conviction. Although high term activity can amplify market movements in both directions, it can also point out prudence, because traders cover themselves rather than accumulate. The sustained difference between the Spot and Futures volumes indicates that the speculative lever effect plays a central role in the current Bitcoin rally.
Balanced profitability suggests market stability
Meanwhile, chain measures presented by another cryptocurrency analyst, Crazzyblockk, more contextualized the broader feeling of the market. According to his dataProfitability between investors’ cohorts remains high: BTC portfolios for less than a month increased by 6.9% in unrealized gains, while short -term holders (less than six months) see 10.7% of gains.
Despite these high beneficiary margins, there was no significant sign of mass profit profit or distress sales. The non -made profits / losses ratio reveals that if the majority of the network is in profit, the distribution of gains between different groups of investors remains relatively balanced.
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This type of profitability uniformly distributed has always been associated with reduced volatility and a lower risk of sudden corrections. Crazzyblockk has noted that, in previous cycles, an extreme profit concentration between a group, generally short -term holders, has often preceded major sales.
However, the current structure seems more stable, without sign of excessive sales pressure. Although macroeconomic risks and external volatility remain factors to monitor, the combination of a strong price action, regular accumulationAnd a limited distribution suggests that the market could prepare for a new phase, which potentially leads to an escape beyond all existing time of Bitcoin.
Star image created with Dall-E, tradingView graphic