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In the current debate on the trajectory of the Bitcoin market, two eminent cryptography analysts shared contrasting views of X, stressing the divided feeling of the community. While one maintains that a drastic slowdown remains possible, the other postulates that the worst slowdown in the market has already passed, which has been a significant probability of 87.5%.
Bitcoin wears trouble?
Crypto Analyst Doctor Profit (@drprofitcrypto) poster On X and arranged two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: a) below to be 68-74k on the normal market, b) a complete accident around 50k in a Swan Black event.”
It has not provided a specific probability for one or the other result, but stressed that a black swan event – a term used to describe a rare and unexpected event which can have a considerable impact on the markets – which cannot be excluded. While noting that an extraordinary slowdown was previously unlikely, he now admits that recent changes in the macroe landscape Black swan The event was very unlikely in recent months, but ask me now, I would not exclude it, would welcome it. »»
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In direct contrast, Crypto Analyst Astronomer (@astronomère_zero) responded with a more optimistic perspective, saying that the substance is already behind us. He referred to a history of Bitcoin price reversals around Meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)Affirming that it works “14 out of 16 times”, around 87.5% of the time. “No guarantees, but a chance of 87.5%, granted the graph below and all the confluence that I have already presented. So far, so good.”
His approach is based on the mapping of prices movements near FOMC dates, noting that the price markets are often interest rate decisions (and related news) before official announcements. The astronomer’s method maintains that Bitcoin generally finds local stockings in a window extending up to five “2D bars” before a date of the FOMC until the day of the meeting itself.
“All you need is to return to a daily time (or 2 per day in my case to keep the graphic) of the deadline, to trace all the dates of the FOMC meeting, and to see what the price has done. This shows that the price tends to reverse when time is approaching in the FOMC. The warning is that the price is reversed before or at the latest, just at the FOMC day, “writes the analyst.
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He underlines that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, which means that the bottom – if the historical model holds – should appear at the latest on that date: “Works almost each time, 14 times in fact (or 87.5% of the time) … The jet lag occurs compared to the FOMC day is generally 0 to 5 2D bars before the exact date. Since the next FOMC is March 19, this means that the bottom is in the last day and the sooner on March 5. »»
To strengthen his argument, the astronomer underlines what he perceives as a “picious fear” on the market. He considers increased pessimism and “posts of precursation of nowhere” of traders established as typical signals that The rebound could be imminent: “Regarding feeling, fear reaches a peak at hilarious levels. Even “deemed” traders protect their reputation […] I do not blame anyone’s methods, but I take it as a big sign of a background. »»
At the time of the press, BTC exchanged $ 83,277.
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