A new liquidity infusion of the general account of the American Treasury (TGA) makes waves among market observers, some analysts speculating that this could be a key trigger for the next major Bitcoin movement. While the Federal Reserve continues its quantitative tightening program (QT), the latest TGGA cash injection – reached up to $ 842 billion – has triggered a debate on the issue of whether we are witnessing a furtive version of quantitative relaxation, sometimes called “no qe, qe, qe, qe. “”
“Not qe, qe” by Fed
In a job Shared on X, macro tomas analysts (@tomasonmarkets) offered a ventilation of how this dynamic takes place: “” not Qe, qe “officially started. An injection of liquidity which could total up to $ 842 billion in the general account of the US Treasury began this week. Functionally, this is similar to quantitative relaxation, but on a temporary basis. »»
The backdrop of this liquidity increase is the American debt limit of 36 billions of dollars. In the absence of a new debt emission authorized until a new debt ceiling agreement is concluded, the Treasury is forced to count on TGA Fund To cover public spending obligations. This lowers the TGA balance – $ 842 billion to Tuesday, February 11 – effectively injecting liquidity into the financial markets.
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According to Tomas, the “train” of Treasury TGA expenses started seriously on Wednesday, February 12: “According to my understanding, the official draw of the General Treasury Account (TGA) induced by the ceiling of” This train is now induced Moved and will not stop as long as the legislators come to a new debt ceiling agreement. »»
It provides that the first segment of this process will likely imply around $ 600 billion in injections between February 12 and April 11. After the April tax season, a temporary replenishment of the TGA could occur, but until a new debt ceiling agreement is concluded, the Treasury will probably continue to spend the existing cash reserves.
While some observers salute this development as a de facto QE de facto, Tomas stresses that the final net impact depends on two critical sewers of liquidity: the federal reserve exceeds the assets at around 55 billion dollars per month, that Tomas expects to continue at the very least thanks to the next FOMC meeting in March. More than two months, this results in an estimated reduction of $ 110 billion in liquidity.
With the Treasury emitting fewer T -shaped hiding places due to debt ceiling constraints – “negative net emission of T hiding rooms” – Money market funds can have fewer short -term public titles to buy. This rarity could encourage them to indicate more money in the reversion installation of the Fed, which effectively drains the liquidity of the larger market.
Tomas Note: “This can encourage money market funds to park money in the reversed repo of the Fed, which can push this graph … The increase in the use of reverse repo would be a liquidity drain, Because the money would move away from the markets and in the installation of resettlement to ease the Fed. “”
Overall, the real scale of the stimulus based on TGA remains uncertain. Last week, net injections in the system were estimated at $ 50 billion, a figure that could fluctuate in the coming weeks as the demand for reversion and reverse reverse evolve.
Another key piece of the puzzle is the current political impasse on the debt ceiling. Despite the calls for bipartite cooperation, divisions within the narrow republican majority – combined with large democratic opposition – complicate the prospects of rapid resolution.
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The Républicans de la Chambre recently presented a plan binding “billions of dollars” in tax reduction to increase the debt ceiling. However, the transition from the measurement is far from being assured, because the deeply conservative members oppose any increase in the limit of the debt in principle. Past increases have generally required inter-participating support, indicating a potentially prolonged case.
“This goes to the shoulders of the chamber president, Mike Johnson, while he is trying to rally the legislators behind the plan,” notes Tomas, reflecting generalized skepticism as to whether sufficient votes can be obtained.
Will Bitcoin benefit from it?
For Bitcoin traders, these Liquidity reflux and flows Often in correlation with the appetite for wider risks – Bitcoin has historically experienced upward price movements during periods of monetary policy and liquidity injection. Although the federal reserve has not indicated any immediate stop at QT, the short -term flow of the TGA in cash could still move risk assets, including bitcoin.
Precisely, the quantity of this “qe”, qe “, remains to be seen in Bitcoin. However, for market players who look at the daily clear liquidity measures, the interaction between Tga drakdowns, qt and reverse repo Use has become a central scenario. While the establishment in Washington continues, the Bitcoin space will monitor each increase and decrease in Fed liquidity graphics, which could simply return the switch to the next big escape from Bitcoin.
At the time of the press, Bitcoin exchanged $ 96,424.
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