According to calculations by NASA and the European Space Authority, the “2024 YR4” asteroid has more than 1 % chance to hit the planet Earth in 2032. Effects of an asteroid.
It is a great premiere in the world of spatial observation. The asteroid “2024 YR4”, which is located at a distance of more than 760,000 kilometers from the earth – appreciated a chance of more than 1 %to hit the country on the date.
Since the implementation of the Turin scale, the probabilities that were developed in 1999 have never been calculated to evaluate the effects of an asteroid on our planet. “This is a unique situation, the first time that an object comes to this probability level” Parisian.
Recently discovered #Asteroid 2024 years 4 can be a very close approach for the earth in 8 years. It is believed that it is 40-100 meters wide. The uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are required to confirm this. pic.twitter.com/u8pvzg3Jaw
– Tony Dunn (@Tony873004) January 28, 2025
A first … for an asteroid that was only discovered on December 27 by Rio Hurtado Observatory, Chile. American and European space agencies believe that “2024 YR4” is between 40 and 100 meters long: This solid body was therefore classified at level 3 of the Turin scale: “This means that it is not yet a serious threat, but that It deserves a more intensive inspection, “said Richard Moissl, head of the Bureau of Esa Planetary Defense.
Need for observations and data
Specifically the NASA Today it believes that the heavenly object gives a chance to beat the earth. On the side of the European Space Agency, we count more on an opportunity for 81.
#2024yr4 (between 40 and 100 MT) is the only asteroid that has achieved a value of more than 1 on the Torino scale last year. Its orbit is still very uncertain, but can approach the earth around Christmas Eve 2032 (but also not). The picture of Sormano2 by G. Ventre that night. pic.twitter.com/lu6gln1cd7
– PS (@piero_sicoli) January 12, 2025
However, astrophysics are missing data to best anticipate the asteroid flight. Especially since the latter moves away from earth today, so much that “2024 yr4” can no longer be observed next April. It will therefore be necessary to find out more about it by 2028 – during his next visit near our planet. The likelihood of an influence on earth could then be revised down … or upwards … it will then be the question of whether we will send a mission to distract the asteroid if we have to ‘think’ about the evacuation of ‘thinking’ An area, “explains Patrick Michel, astrophysicist on the Côte d’Azur Observatory (OCA).
According to the first elements of the analysis, an influence of the asteroid “2024 YR4” could lead to “localized destruction” and, among other things, blow a city. Scientists explain that they put the heavenly object “under very high surveillance” without saying “concerned”. The European Space Agency could have to communicate on this topic in the coming days.